Mortgage Lending Slowly Rising

Lending for home loans totalled an estimated £16 billion in July, a 26% increase from £12.7 billion in June but down 36% from £24.9 billion in July 2008, according to new data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML).

This is further evidence of a modest improvement in the market over the summer after an exceptionally weak winter. However, activity is still subdued on any historic comparison; this is the lowest July lending figure since 2001 and £11 billion lower than the July average over the previous seven years of £27 billion. Lending volumes remain consistent with our forecast for £145 billion in gross mortgage lending this year.


CML Economist Paul Samter said: "Most of the indices point to house prices rising modestly over the summer months. The CML's July gross lending estimate of £16 billion is the highest level in nine months and consistent with the rise in house purchase approvals.

"But the bounce-back in activity from the extreme weakness around the turn of the year, coinciding with a seasonal bounce, is limited in how far it can go against the current back-drop. We expect improved sentiment to support the market, but a further significant pick-up is unlikely with so many obstacles in place. As a result, we anticipate some seasonal slowing in lending volumes and housing transactions over the latter part of the year and the picture of a slow but more stable market to emerge."

(CD/KMcA)