New figures have revealed how weak construction activity and snow-related disruption caused a drop in demand for mineral products during the first three months of this year

Research by the Mineral Products Association (MPA) states that sales volumes for asphalt and aggregates fell by 4.8% and 4.9% respectively in Q1 2018, while ready-mixed concrete (RMC) fell by 7.7%. Mortar sales also contracted by 3.8%, marking the biggest quarterly fall since early 2013.

Unusually severe weather during late February and early March can be partly attributed to the weak sales volumes in the first quarter of the year. And with official figures revealing a 3.3% decline in construction over the quarter, MPA members have suggested that not only was work on site being stopped because of the weather itself, but also because of energy shortages.

Despite the weather impact, longer-term trends in construction demand for mineral products confirm the underlying weakening in construction activity. Sales volumes for aggregates were 3.6% lower in the 12 months to March 2018 compared with the previous year, 4.5% lower for asphalt, and 6.7% lower for RMC. However over the same period, mortar sales volumes increased by 8.7%.

The MPA said: "Whilst mortar sales are closely linked to housebuilding, materials such as aggregates and RMC are ubiquitous to all types of construction work and are not usually stocked for future use on project sites. The sale of these materials can therefore be used as a reliable and straightforward indicator of ongoing construction activity.

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"The continued weakening in these markets, not only at national level, but also across all regions in Great Britain suggest that, outside new housing construction, there are limited sources of growth."

Continuing, the MPA stated the trend in asphalt sales shows that more road work in London, the East Midlands and the South West in the past year was offset by declines in most other regions in Britain, and most particularly in Scotland, where some major projects, including the Forth Replacement Crossing, came to an end last year.

"Sales of RMC declined by 6.7% in the 12 months to March 2018, driven by a sharp decline in London, which accounts for 22% of the total GB market," the MPA said.

"The majority of RMC is used in non-housing new construction, as well as general repair and maintenance work. Demand from infrastructure construction in London is currently being supported by projects such as Thames Tideway, so the weakness in the London market since mid-2016 most likely reflects a sharp slowdown in commercial office building and repair and maintenance work in the capital."

Aurelie Delannoy, Director of Economic Affairs at MPA, said further growth this year in terms of new housing and infrastructure construction work "should support mineral products markets".

"However, this will be offset by the sharp decline expected in commercial work, the third biggest construction sector," she said.

"Should greater clarity emerge on the Brexit negotiations over the next few months be achieved, this would help unlock stalled investment decisions since the Referendum, although it would still take time new investment decisions to translate into new market demand. This means mineral products producers are expecting a generally flat market this year.

"Markets will have to wait for 2019, when a boost in demand should come from the planned acceleration in the Road Investment Strategy spending plans and work underway for HS2 and Hinkley Point C. It is therefore essential that there are no further delays on the delivery of these projects, and that any new and unnecessary sources of economic and political uncertainty are averted, to boost confidence and encourage positive investment decisions."

(LM/MH)