The Construction Products Association (CPA) is predicting construction output to reach 2.3% by 2019.

The organisation's latest Spring forecast expects output to hit 1.3% this year, before dipping slightly dip to 1.2% in 2018.

However, while the figures are an improvement on previous post-Brexit figures, the CPA said infrastructure projects will be key towards the industry's growth.

The infrastructure sector is expected to be the main driving factor for construction, with a current pipeline valued at £300 billion over the next four years. In addition, growth will be primarily driven by a 34.5% increase in infrastructure activity due to major projects in the energy, rail and water sub-sectors. This is expected to offset predicted falls in commercial and industrial construction.

Elsewhere, house building will remain a key source of growth with private house building starts rising by 7.2% between 2017 and 2019.


Noble Francis, Economics Director at the CPA, said the construction industry has been sustained post-referendum primarily due to projects which were signed up to before the UK's vote to leave the European Union.

"Activity is expected to remain strong in the first half of this year in all the key construction sectors: private housing, commercial, industrial and infrastructure," he said.

"Looking further forward, a fall in contract awards during the second half of last year, is likely to impact greatest where Brexit uncertainty affects sectors requiring high investment up front for a long term rate of return, such as commercial offices and industrial factories.

"We forecast that output in commercial offices will fall 1.0% this year and a further 12.0% in 2018. Industrial factories construction is expected to fall 5.0% in 2017 and 4.0% in 2018.

"However, this is expected to be offset by strong growth in infrastructure and private housing. Infrastructure construction is expected to increase by 7.3% in 2017 and 11.1% in 2018, primarily driven by major projects such as main works at Hinkley Point C and High-Speed 2. Private housing starts are forecast to rise 3.0% in 2017 and 2.0% in both 2018 and 2019.

"Looking forward, given the dependence of construction industry growth on activity in the infrastructure and private housing sectors, it is essential that government focuses on delivery of infrastructure projects in its National Infrastructure and Construction Pipeline. In addition, as major house builders are reliant upon Help to Buy equity loans, which are due to end in 2021, it is vital that government outlines its plans early to support house building growth as we approach the end of the scheme."

(LM/MH)